Egypt Sovereign Credit Note: Long Belly, Short Long-End
A three-page institutional-style sovereign credit note recommending OW EGY 2032s versus UW EGY 2049s on the argument that the EFF-programme regime is priced cleanly in the belly while the long-end carries political and FX-regime tail risk beyond the 2027 programme horizon. Built around a 21-KPI scorecard versus a four-country peer comp (Pakistan, Nigeria, Turkey), a public-source macro snapshot (World Bank API: reserves trajectory, current account, CPI), and a Bloomberg-pulled bond universe with carry and roll-down math. The v0.9 published here is honest about its state: every number tied to a verified public source is concrete, every number requiring primary IMF Staff Report integration or Bloomberg-pulled OAS data is tagged [VERIFY] in the source markdown until the v1.0 update closes the gap. The build template (Python: openpyxl scorecard generator + WeasyPrint PDF renderer + plotly chart scripts) is reusable across any other EM sovereign on the same pattern.
Pipeline Architecture
Primary sources (IMF Article IV + EFF reviews, CBE bulletin, MoF debt strategy, Eurobond prospectuses) and public macro data (World Bank API) feed a 21-KPI scorecard and a macro snapshot. A Bloomberg session populates bond CUSIPs, OAS, and 24-month historical differentials. Thesis is written before analysis (Gate A); data is allowed to revise the thesis but never fudged to fit it (Gate B); every number in the final note traces to a registered source (Gate C). Output is one PDF + one Excel + four interactive charts.
Methodology notes
Continuous-audit build pattern: six audit passes on the plan before any artifact written, three within-artifact gates (post-thesis, post-data, post-draft) that block progress if not passed, and one live mid-build pass (Pass 7) that surfaced an external blocker (imf.org refuses programmatic fetch) and rewrote the plan accordingly. The plan + audit log live in `~/Desktop/job search winter 2027/PLAN-2026-05-28-portfolio-buildout.md`.
Reproducible Python pipeline: `build_scorecard.py` produces the 21-KPI Excel from a peer_data.csv source-of-truth, `build_pdf.py` renders note.md to PDF via Markdown + WeasyPrint with an institutional research-note stylesheet, `build_charts.py` emits four standalone plotly.js HTML files (no Python install required to view). Re-run any script after primary data is filled in and the artifact updates without manual edit.
Human-fingerprint discipline: the reserves chart carries a non-round axis tick at $42.5B marking the $42B reserves falsification trigger; the note carries an explicit version line ("v0.9 pending IMF Review #7 and Bloomberg-verified CUSIPs"); the back matter names the limit ("WB doesn't report government debt/GDP for Egypt under the standard indicator; sourced from MoF MTDMS"). The artifact wears its limits visibly rather than hiding them.
Gate-failure protocol committed in the plan: if data contradicts thesis at Gate B, the thesis is updated (not the data). The original-versus-revised thesis is then documented in back matter for honesty. If thesis fails Gate A three iterations, the escape hatch pivots from Egypt to Argentina (Milei reform story, dollar bonds tradeable, public data) — explicitly not Pakistan, where the election cycle would expire the shelf life of the call.
What this isn’t (yet)
The honest limits. A page called “honest” with no limitations would be a credibility own-goal.
Independent · not investment advice
This is an independent piece of student work. It was not commissioned by, paid for by, affiliated with, or endorsed by any sell-side firm, asset manager, or institution. The OW belly / UW long-end framing is one student's read of the disclosed facts and World Bank public data. Nothing here is a recommendation.
v0.9 published; v1.0 pending two specific integrations
Bond CUSIPs, current OAS, 24-month historical differentials, carry and roll-down math are pending a Rotman Bloomberg session. The IMF Feb 2026 Staff Report (CR 2026/069) is pending direct read for FY24/25 numbers, structural-benchmark detail, and forward projections. Every number requiring those inputs is tagged [VERIFY] in note.md. The v1.0 update closes both gaps and re-runs the citation-audit pass.
Scorecard percentiles versus 4-country peer set, not full EM universe
The EMIA work on which the 21-KPI framework was developed covered 72 emerging-market sovereigns. The raw dataset is not portable from the EMIA work environment. The current scorecard computes z-scores against a 4-country peer comp (Pakistan, Nigeria, Turkey) rather than full percentile rank against the 72-sovereign universe. The full-percentile rebuild would require re-scoring against public World Bank WGI plus IMF SDDS data across 70+ sovereigns.